What a difference three months makes.
Canada’s governing Liberal Party, in power now for more than a decade, was dead in the water at the end of 2024.
The almost comical disdain for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sent the party’s polling numbers into the deepest depths of popular opinion, such that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party of Canada seemed poised to cruise to a resounding majority.
Seeing such favourable polls, it is no wonder the Conservative leader seemed so anxious for an election last fall, as Trudeau floundered, prorogued, delayed, tanked his party’s fortunes.
If Poilievre got his fall election wish, he would no doubt be the Prime Minister of Canada today.
Then a whirlwind of events in quick succession raised the Liberal Party’s polling numbers from the dead.
Donald Trump was elected, and wasted no time denigrating Canada, its people, and its leaders. Trudeau resigned. Economic all-star Mark Carney won the Liberal Party leadership race with ease, and cancelled the consumer carbon tax as his first official move as prime minister (so much for those Conservative “Carbon Tax Carney” ads running every break on your television).
The result? A reversal of political fortunes that seemed completely impossible at the outset of the year.
Yet here we are, once again looking at a dead heat in an upcoming federal election, with the Liberals suddenly flirting with majority territory (at least according to polls released early this week).
As of this writing, no election has been called. But by the time you read this, it might already be official. So it’s worth taking a moment to consider our local candidates, and the campaign ahead.
The parties and their candidates surely sense the call is coming soon, too, judging from their recent posturing. Both the NDP and Green Party announced their federal candidates for the West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country riding in recent weeks—eighteen-year-old Jäger Rosenberg for the NDP, and Squamish Councillor Lauren Greenlaw for the Greens.
Rosenburg and Greenlaw join incumbent Liberal Patrick Weiler, the Conservative Party’s Keith Roy, and the People’s Party’s Peyman Askari on the ballot for Sea to Sky voters.
While it’s no doubt foolish to write any candidate off before the writ drops, Whistler’s riding has historically been a two-horse race. Take the 2021 vote as proof: Presumably sensing a weak link in the riding, the NDP floated its own all-star candidate in Avi Lewis. But Lewis failed to gain traction, finishing third with 16,265 votes.
Weiler ultimately won his second election, earning 21,500 votes to Conservative John Weston’s 19,062. Voter turnout was a somewhat respectable 65 per cent.
Which way the local pendulum will swing in our upcoming election is anybody’s guess—we’ve seen how quickly polls and political fortunes can turn on a dime.
As for the issues, it’s gearing up to be something of a curious campaign. Where Poilievre previously angled for a “Carbon Tax Election,” Carney neutered that narrative on his first day in office by eliminating the consumer carbon tax. Following up on a promise of his own during last fall’s B.C. election, Premier David Eby on March 14 pledged to also scrap the provincial carbon tax.
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, aside from being a mouthful to say, is a massive riding, covering nearly 13,000 km2 and home to some wildly diverging interests. So it will be interesting to see how the candidates approach their messaging once the writ drops in light of current circumstances.
But while there are no doubt other serious issues to be discussed—housing, immigration, inflation, climate change… the list goes on—one gets the sense this election is about one thing and one thing only at the heart of it:
Who will stand up strongest for Canadian sovereignty?
It’s the question at the heart of the Liberal Party’s astonishing polling comeback. Tracing the poll numbers, you see a clear and obvious spike in Liberal support immediately after the U.S. election—which is about when Trump first started referring to our prime minister as “Governor Trudeau” and openly musing, seemingly every single day, about making Canada the 51st State.
Oh, to be a fly on the wall of the Conservative Party war room these past three months.
But of course, pendulums swing both ways, and there’s no telling where voters’ intentions will lie by the time they mark their ballot.
Campaigns matter, as they say, and we’re about to witness a doozy.
It might as well be the catchphrase of 2025 at this rate:
Buckle up.
