The Vancouver Canucks' game on Wednesday night against the Calgary Flames technically isn't a must-win game. But it may as well be.
There are all kinds of scenarios where the Canucks could lose to the Flames and still make the Stanley Cup Playoffs but that's like traveling to Mordor through the Mines of Moria. Sure, you might make it, but at what cost? You're going to need Gandalf the Grey in the first round and you can't count on the return of Gandalf the White in the third round — you might not make it to the third round in the first place.
The Canucks are currently one point behind the Flames for the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. The Flames also have a game in hand, as well as the edge in the first tiebreaker: regulation wins.
Wednesday's game is therefore the proverbial four-point game. A win in regulation would not only get the Canucks two points but also simultaneously prevent the Flames from gaining two points. The Flames would still control their own destiny thanks to their game in hand but the Canucks could put the pressure on by vaulting over them in the standings.
Of course, the Canucks don't just have to worry about the Flames. The St. Louis Blues are tied with the Canucks in points, albeit with one more game played. The Utah Hockey Club is lurking in the weeds with the potential for a late-season surge and you can't entirely count out the Anaheim Ducks. I mean, you can if you want to. I'm not your boss.
All that is to say, the Canucks don't just need a win on Wednesday night; they need a lot of wins down the stretch. It would be a lot more believable that they could get those wins if they got their captain back.
Quinn Hughes hasn't played since March 1, where he suffered an injury against the Seattle Kraken in addition to the oblique injury he was already playing through that kept him out for nearly a month.
After Tuesday's loss to the Montreal Canadiens, Rick Tocchet intimated that Hughes will play on Wednesday. He made the trip to Calgary and took the ice in the morning despite the team cancelling their usual morning skate thanks to games on back-to-back nights. According to those on the scene, he looked like someone preparing to play.
We'll know more when Rick Tocchet addresses the media at 3:30 p.m. PST.
UPDATE: Sure enough, Quinn Hughes will play on Wednesday night against the Calgary Flames. Or, at least, Tocchet said he was going to be "a good possibility" to be in the lineup.
Apparently, there are some other game-time decisions. It's worth noting that Drew O'Connor and Elias "Junior" Pettersson were battling the flu and left Tuesday's game-day skate early.
Vancouver Canucks projected lines
Assuming Hughes returns to the lineup, the Canucks will have a decision to make on defence: do they stick with lefties and righties on their strong sides or do they scratch Victor Mancini and move a left-side defenceman to his off-side? Will the flu keep "Junior" out of the lineup?
UPDATE: Turns out, neither!
Tyler Myers was evidently one of the game-time decisions Tocchet talked about and he won't be playing. So, even though Hughes is back, the Canucks still won't have their full complement of defencemen.
Instead, Marcus Pettersson will move to his off-side on the top pairing with Hughes, while Junior will be on the second pairing with Filip Hronek.
In addition, Jonathan Lekkerimäki won't be in the lineup, though it's unclear if he's dealing with an injury or is a healthy scratch. Nils Åman will come into the lineup in his place, necessitating some different forward lines.
Here are the Canucks' projected lines:
Let's be clear: Mancini has played pretty well. But the Canucks have greatly appreciated what "Junior" Pettersson brings to the table and they highly value Derek Forbort's defensive game and penalty killing. My guess is that Forbort will move to his off-side on a third pairing with the younger Pettersson but I will update once more information is known.
The Canucks' starting goaltender is expected to be Kevin Lankinen, playing his second game in as many nights.
When I asked him about playing back-to-backs and whether he'd ever done so in the NHL, Lankinen said he wasn't sure if he'd done so before but seemed completely unfazed by the idea.
"I've played a lot of international tournaments in high-stakes games back-to-back," said Lankinen. "So, I don't see why it would be an issue."
Calgary Flames projected lines
The Canucks are fortunate that while they've been floundering, the Flames haven't been able to create any separation in the standings. The Flames have been trading off wins and losses over the past couple of weeks, with a 4-2-2 record since the break for the 4 Nations Face-Off.
The Flames have one major advantage over the Canucks, aside from occasionally being able to score more than three goals in a game: they're playing on three days rest, while the Canucks not only played on Tuesday night but also immediately flew out from Vancouver to Calgary after that game. The added travel on back-to-back nights means fatigue could be a big factor.
Of course, the last time the Canucks had tough travel between back-to-back games, they battled their way to a 3-0 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs, with Elias "Original Flavour" Pettersson putting on a stellar defensive performance. The Canucks can only hope for a similar result.
Here are the Flames' projected lines, courtesy of Sportsnet 960's Pat Steinberg:
Jonathan Huberdeau - Nazem Kadri - Matt Coronato
Joel Farabee - Mikael Backlund - Blake Coleman
Yegor Sharangovich - Morgan Frost - Martin Pospisil
Ryan Lomberg - Kevin Rooney - Connor Zary
Joel Hanley - MacKenzie Weegar
Kevin Bahl - Rasmus Andersson
Jake Bean - Brayden Pachal
Dustin Wolf
Dan Vladar
The Flames' starting goaltender will be Dustin Wolf, who has been the Flames' MVP this season with a .915 save percentage and a 22-12-4 record.
