La Niña may still impact Metro Vancouver's winter...but it may happen much later than anticipated.
According to the latest update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Centre, ENSO-neutral conditions - when neither La Niña nor El Niño are present - aren't expected to shift until the end of January.
Environment Canada Meteorologist Chris Doyle tells V.I.A. the equatorial sea surface temperatures are near-to-below average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, representing a "weak" La Niña signal.
NOAA data indicates ocean temperatures should develop into La Niña conditions by the end of January but it will be a "weaker" La Niña. The weather phenomenon is expected to continue through part of March and then return to ENSO-neutral conditions, Doyle explains.
La Niña years often include low-elevation snowfall and below-average temperatures, although this isn't always the case.
Metro Vancouver weather forecast
Since this year's forecast has a weaker signal, La Niña won't have an extenuated impact on the region. However, a deep freeze or two could occur through February and March.
"We've had weak La Niñas before and under these conditions occurring right now it's hard to forecast," he explains. "But there's a possibility that sometime during this winter we may get a cold outbreak."
January's forecast indicates above-average temperatures and near-average precipitation. Although the month started on the cooler side, temperatures are expected to climb after Thursday, Jan. 2 as weak storms bring moisture and milder weather to the region.
February's signal looks "drier than average" with near-average temperatures.
"There's no sign of outbreaks one way or another..for high [temperatures] or low [ones]," Doyle notes, adding that the notably weak La Niña signal "harms the accuracy of the model."
Mid-March is the latest the region may see a blast of Arctic air but flurries have occurred as late as April.
Stay up-to-date with hyperlocal forecasts across 50 neighbourhoods in the Lower Mainland with V.I.A.'s Weatherhood.
