Did you feel it?
The subtle shift in the air on the morning of Monday, Oct. 24?
Maybe it’s just me. But as I sat down to write this week’s Opening Remarks, it was almost as if I was doing so on an altogether new plane of existence.
One defined less by unseasonable October warmth and more by grey skies and crisp, cold air—the kind you expect from the fall months, which urges the snowline hurriedly down from the alpine.
Maybe it’s the effect of the leaves all dropping like big, crunchy, off-coloured snowflakes in recent days, or Monday morning bringing with it the first signs of snow on the valley floor (however briefly).
But mostly, I suspect, it’s a feeling inspired by my calendar, which for the first time in months lies empty of events for the immediate future—a development I’m finding somewhat hard to reconcile.
Here we are, post election, but pre-inauguration. The Whistler Mountain Bike Park is closed for the fall; Whistler Blackcomb’s ski runs still a month away from opening for the winter.
The general tone outside is drab and wet, and inside the office dogs are all donning sweaters.
A sticky, seasonal sludge seems to be clogging the inside of my skull, weighing down the backs of my eyelids. Aside from pouring another coffee, I can’t be bothered to fight it.
And all at once I come to the understanding that this must be it—those fabled, frostbitten weeks spoken of in recent years only in hushed tones.
The days so many Whistler locals worked so hard to dispel forever.
Dead season.
The doldrums won’t last, I know. What used to be several weeks of zero visitation, closed businesses and laid-off staff is now a week or two of relative quiet on the local events calendar, if it slows down at all.
Indeed, by this time next week, we’ll be talking about the swearing-in of Whistler’s new mayor and council; the beginning of the beloved Cornucopia food and drink festival; the Remembrance Day ceremony in Whistler Olympic Plaza; and eyeing a little-known event some Whistler locals refer to as opening day at Whistler Blackcomb.
Call me crazy, but I much prefer the busyness and animation to dead season depression. So I’m holding out hope that the early winter months are not derailed by apocalyptic weather events or another COVID resurgence, as we’ve seen in recent years.
And yet, even as I write this, a growing chorus of experts warns us of another incoming torpedo, this time in the form of a recession.
Earlier this month, federal finance minister Chrystia Freeland warned of “difficult days ahead,” shifting her tone from her trademark economic optimism to one of elevated caution.
“Our economy will slow. There will be people whose mortgage rates will rise. Business will no longer be booming,” Freeland said at an auto industry conference in Windsor, Ont. on Oct. 19. “Our unemployment rate will no longer be at its record low. That’s going to be the case in Canada. That will be the case in the U.S. and that will be the case in economies big and small around the world.”
While it’s not clear just how deep the collective cuts will be, or where they will hit the hardest, Freeland isn’t mincing words about the difficult days ahead.
“To say otherwise would be misleading,” she said.
The Bank of Canada, meanwhile, again raised interest rates on Wednesday, Oct. 26, to 3.75 per cent—the sixth consecutive increase this year.
An interest rate slash isn’t likely in 2023, either, according to BMO economist Sal Guatieri, who noted in an interview with Global News this month that the Bank of Canada has made it clear that it will continue to raise rates until it can rein in inflation, which remains well above the bank’s two-per-cent target.
As for how a recession might impact the labour market, Guatieri told Global that, in a mild recession, widespread layoffs are unlikely, and much of the contraction will be in job vacancies. If the economy moves into a more traditional recession, however, layoffs will go up more significantly.
In any recession, it’s the creature comforts that are first to go—things like restaurant meals or shopping excursions.
Or, say, expensive ski vacations to destination resorts.
But so far, it would seem, fears of a recession are not impacting Whistler’s bookings (knocking on all the wood in my little office, as I kiss my lucky rabbit’s foot and toss a generous handful of salt over my shoulder for good measure).
Early holiday bookings from international markets are still strong, according to Tourism Whistler (TW), though some markets are still showing signs of hesitancy due to a variety of factors: inflation, the war in Ukraine, and gasoline prices chief among them.
“West Coast U.S. has shown strength, but national U.S. has been a bit slower to return than expected, while Canada is expected to show continued strength,” said TW’s president and CEO Barrett Fisher, in an emailed statement.
“That said, labour challenges may still cap our capacity, which in turn impacts closer-in bookings from regional markets.”
Rising interest rates and a potential recession are two factors that could further impact travel, Fisher added.
“We are therefore anticipating the upcoming winter to be stronger than the past two, but it will still fall below pre-pandemic levels,” she said.
As for Whistler’s hotels, members of the resort’s hotel association are also reporting strong winter bookings, said chair Saad Hasan, noting that TW’s most recent 120-Day booking pace for Whistler is 39 per cent ahead of last year and one per cent ahead of three years ago.
So the resort hums along even as financial bellwethers ring in the background.
And interestingly enough, if a recession does come to fruition, its impact on Whistler might be similar to what we saw during the pandemic, Fisher noted.
“During recessions, travellers typically stay closer to home, so not unlike what we saw during the pandemic, we would likely see stronger visitation from our loyal regional and national markets, who choose not to travel further afield,” she said.
“As well, the U.S. exchange rate is a strong incentive for U.S. visitors to come to Canada and specifically Whistler, as their dollar goes 30- to 40-per-cent further.”
But we shall cross that bridge when we come to it.
In the meantime, I suppose I’ll stop sulking and savour the last fleeting moments of our brief and peaceful dead season—business is about to pick up again.
