TORONTO — Experts say the Greater Toronto Area condo market is unlikely to awaken from its lull any time soon even as other major Canadian cities see somewhat more promising demand.
As supply continues to pile up in the GTA, some say affordability is still a key problem holding would-be buyers back from placing their offers, despite the fact that borrowing costs have come down over the past year.
"Sure, the rates have fallen ... but it's still not night and day difference," said Brendon Cowans, a sales representative for Toronto-based brokerage Property.ca.
"There's still a lot of things going on where it's tough for people to get into the market. The dollar is not as strong, the money that people are making hasn't increased significantly."
Real estate watchers have described 2024 as a record year for condo completions in the region and Cowans points to more recent figures that show a severe mismatch between available inventory and buyer demand.
Last month saw roughly 1,400 condominium sales throughout the GTA, down 23.5 per cent compared with March 2024, according to data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. That was as nearly 5,500 new condo units hit the market, bringing total active listings in that category to almost 4,700.
The board said the first three months of the year saw condo sales fall by one-fifth compared with the first quarter of last year.
Cowans said buyer preferences are shifting as a result. With so many options out there, he said people want more value if they're going to opt for condo living over saving for a house.
"They're like, 'Well, if I'm going to pay this, I want a bigger place, or I want the balcony to be a wraparound, I want this type of view,'" he said.
"I mean, these things were always there, but some of them back in the day would be like, 'Well, I'd be lucky if I got that.' Now it's more of a demand, like, 'I must have this.' What used to be a nice-to-have is all of a sudden becoming must-haves.'"
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. forecasts construction of new condominium apartments will likely slow this year in Ontario due to the weaker resale and rental markets, which have also contributed to lower demand for pre-construction units.
"The GTA would be probably the worst (condo) market in Canada at this point, given how much investor demand there was, which is now gone, and how much supply is still coming to the market," said BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic, adding much of southern Ontario is seeing similar trends.
He said the GTA experienced strong pre-construction buying through the pandemic until early 2022, leading to record units being started at the time which are now just being completed.
"It's a similar story everywhere, because everywhere in Canada, to some extent, has been dealing with really strong population growth," said Kavcic.
"But in Toronto, the fundamental problem is that a lot of that pre-construction activity was investor-owned. And what does the investor do now? They wanted to flip that at completion for an equity gain, but they can't do that anymore ... It's a much tougher environment."
At the other end of the spectrum is Montreal, where condo sales were up more than 15 per cent in March and nearly 17 per cent higher for the first quarter, according to the real estate board that monitors activity throughout Quebec.
The median price of a unit, while up five per cent in March from last year, remains relatively affordable at $420,000, compared with an average price of $682,000 in the GTA.
"I think the reality is that market never got too frothy. It was always relatively affordable," said Kavcic.
"Now, interest rates have come down and that market is reacting almost like you would normally expect during an interest rate cycle," he said.
The condo market in other cities like Calgary are also performing better, he said, as people move from Ontario to take advantage of its affordability.
The Calgary Real Estate Board said that although year-over-year condo sales fell by about one-third last month, the 1,383 sales for that property category so far in 2025 are "well above long-term trends for the first quarter."
The Greater Vancouver Area falls somewhere in between.
While the ratio of condo sales to active listings in the GTA is around 60 per cent below the long-term average, it's about half of that in the Vancouver region, said a report last month by TD economist Rishi Sondhi.
"This indicates a much larger degree of oversupply in the GTA’s condo market," he said, noting the Vancouver condo market isn’t facing as extreme of a supply-demand mismatch.
Sondhi said condo construction is holding up better in Vancouver, likely supported by ownership demand that’s been more resilient in recent years.
But Vancouver broker Randy Ryalls said condo developers are recognizing the challenging economic environment and that "anything that doesn't have to be built is not being built."
"So far this year, for sure, there hasn't been the number of units being released to the marketplace that we probably would have expected," said Ryalls of Royal LePage Sterling Realty.
"Many of them are keeping their stuff on the shelf as long as they can," he said.
Condo sales in the region were around 10 per cent lower last month than they were in March 2024, as the benchmark price of such properties was $767,300, a 0.9 per cent year-over-year decrease, according to Greater Vancouver Realtors.
Buyers in Vancouver have choice and are taking their time to shop around, said Ryalls, attributing the lack of urgency to many units still being out of price range, which has prompted developers to offer incentives.
Those who can afford a property are likely leaning on "the bank of mom and dad" to put a down payment, he said.
But Ryalls questioned whether the gap between supply and demand could be set to worsen in years to come, rivalling the situation currently facing the Toronto-condo market.
"The bad news is that there's no new ones being built," he said.
"So two years or three years from now, when we emerge from this, if that's what the time frame is, there's going to be no new product."
This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 13, 2025.
Sammy Hudes, The Canadian Press
