“Math is hard.”
-Mathophobe Barbie
There are a number of problems related to writing a weekly opinion column in Pique. In this case it’s not the problems people most frequently ask me, which are, in order of frequency, the following. “How do you come up with topics to write about?” Simple. I live in an interesting town in an interesting country in very interesting times... globally.
“Why do you, or more accurately, why does Pique let you do this?” I do it because I enjoy it. You’d have to ask them why they let me. It’s a mystery to me as well. Often I imagine they’d rather fill the page with real estate ads, especially weeks when they get a lot of angry phone calls and emails about whatever I’ve written.
“What makes you think your opinion is so damn important?” Nothing. I’m fully aware of what anatomical feature opinions are like. But I have a blank screen to fill each week and, inexplicably, a lot of people read it. Ask them.
“When are you going to retire?” Usually asked with heightened anticipation. Well, all I can say is watch this space. When you see real estate ads two weeks in a row, draw your own conclusions.
But the problem I have with writing this column is, and this is going to sound ridiculous, a certain lack of freedom to express myself in ways I might, under other circumstances, choose. Told you it sounded ridiculous. But stick with me.
One of the things I had to give up when I got this gig was writing letters to the editor. I love, loved, writing them. Letters to the editor are something akin to crank calls or yelling at umpires at ball games. They’re avenues to vent, taunt, poke fun at something that’s been said or left unsaid and share your own opinion.
In the early days, okay, the first 10 years I was doing this, I’d sneak a letter past Bob Barnett every now and then. I’d use an alias, several different ones in fact. But he caught on to me, something about a unique writing style, more likely the fact they were all coming from my personal email address since this was before Google made it easy to have dozens of email addresses.
I had a singular fondness for letters to editors largely because that’s how I came to Bob’s attention in the first place. Doesn’t explain his lack of judgment offering me a column, but you’d have to ask him about that.
Another problem is self-imposed. I’m hesitant to respond to letters other people send in. I have my forum; letters belong to them. Yeah, they not infrequently respond to something I’ve written or they express opinions I’m chafing to refute, but they’re entitled to their opinions as much as I’m entitled to mine. So I almost always let it slide.
Almost. Not always.
This week I feel compelled to respond to a letter in last week’s Pique. You can probably guess which one. Nothing personal. I don’t know the letter writer. I just question the logic behind the opinion.
Relying on polling data from 338 Canada, the writer calls the election a toss-up, likely minority government. The main problem with polls is they’re fluid. The most recent data from 338 gives the NDP a 73% chance of winning the most seats and a 68% chance of forming a majority government.
The surge likely arises from the Conservative leader’s odd performance in the leader’s debate and the questionable positions and honesty he’s displayed since then and the release of the party’s education plan that harkens back to the bad ol’ don’t-ask-don’t-tell approach to gender and ethnicity education.
So things are beginning to shape up if you believe the NDP are more aligned with your beliefs than the Conservatives, which the majority of people in this riding are.
But 338 also gives the Conservative candidate in this riding a 52% chance of being our next MLA!
For the past seven years we’ve seen the effect of having an MLA in opposition. Even a seasoned politician like Jordan Sturdy admitted it’s difficult to get things done being out of government.
The letter writer suggests people thinking about voting NDP switch their vote to Green since the Green candidate is leading the NDP candidate in the polls. Here’s where the math gets dicey.
If things stay the way they are, we’ll have an MLA sitting in opposition. Given Mr. Fulmer’s track record as a successful businessman, I’m imagining he’s not going to be particularly happy being powerless.
But even in opposition, he’d have a greater impact than the Green candidate would should he become our MLA. So what is the math? If 100% of the voters in this riding voted Green we’d have 0% representation in Victoria no matter who forms government. Zero. Nada. A voice in the wilderness shouting at clouds.
There is likely to be no king/queen maker role for the Green Party to play, not that they were particularly good at playing it the last time they had the opportunity. The odds favour a majority government.
The same current 338 polls show one riding likely to go Green, Saanich North and the Islands. The party leader, having chosen to run in what has been considered a “safe” NDP riding, Victoria-Beacon Hill, has moved that riding to Green leaning possibility, a fluid maybe, maybe not proposition.
Our own riding is considered a toss-up... with Conservative as a likely outcome.
So the choice, if we don’t want a Conservative MLA, comes down to more people voting Green or more people voting NDP. The letter writer suggests going Green because he’s polling better right now.
If you want a voiceless representation in the next government, that’s the way to go. With luck, he’ll be part of an official party—a minimum of two seats. If the stars align, there’ll be three Green MLAs.
Three times zero is still zero.
I’m not enamoured with the NDP. Better than the alternative by a long shot, but not without baggage. But I’m really not enamoured with the idea of having no useful voice in the next government as opposed to an MLA recruited by the party based on her track record who would be likely to bring significant benefits to our riding.
Fortunately for all of us, that’s the last thing I have to say about tomorrow’s result. If you haven’t voted, think hard about it. If you have, I hope you understood the math.
