There are 28 volcanoes in B.C. and the Yukon; one is the Sea to Sky Corridor's Nch’ḵay̓/Mount Garibaldi.
Squamish's Gio Roberti is part of a team that has recently completed a multi-year project supporting Natural Resources Canada in defining Canadian volcanic hazard and risk guidelines for Mount Garibaldi.
Specifically, Roberti's research, which he undertook for AISIX Solutions, a climate analytics and data company, centres on lava flows and lahars—the mudflow of rocky debris and water—in particular.
The project, which will result in a preliminary risk map of potential debris flows from Mount Garibaldi, used AI to model where the debris would go should Mount Garibaldi erupt.
The map will eventually be available for public viewing, but it is not yet.
Ultimately, this map could help inform various levels of government as they work to mitigate risk.
This is the first effort to produce this sort of map for Canadian volcanoes, according to Roberti.
What kind of AI?
To come up with its analysis, AISIX uses AI, machine learning, probabilistic (how likely it is that something will happen) and physical-based modelling.
"All advanced mathematical tools to help us better model natural phenomena," said Roberti, who leads product development at AISIX.
"We model many possible types of flows, and so some will be more sticky and they will stop sooner. Some will be more fluid and move further away from the volcano," Roberti said.
He noted some folks may not know that Ring Creek is the result of a lava flow that formed 10,000 to 12,000 years ago.
"It goes almost to Valleycliffe. And so there is the possibility of this type of flow to reach places where people live now, but … in the case of [an] eruption, there would be time for people to react."
Don't panic
Being a local resident, Roberti has been able to spend time on Mount Garibaldi.
He's summited it, completed the Garibaldi Névé Traverse, and skied it.
"I have also been around other sides of it,” he said. “A beautiful place.”
While there is a possibility of Mount Garibaldi erupting at some point, Roberti isn't too worried about it.
"There's no need to panic. [This is] just a scientific project where we study the volcano, and this is common scientific practice," he said.
The last time it erupted was about 10,000 years ago.
If it were to erupt, there would be warning signs leading up to it; thus, there would be time for residents to react and stay safe.
"Volcanoes are very unlikely to go boom from one day to another, so there will be precursory signals. There will be increased seismicity; there will be signs that the volcano might be erupting. This will leave days, if not weeks, for people to realize that this is happening. So it's not something that will happen suddenly. There will be some time to react," he said. "When we look at the ... probability of the volcano erupting, it is actually pretty low. In terms of hazards that can affect our lives, in Squamish, there are things that are more likely to happen ... flooding, wildfire and driving accidents that are way more likely to happen."
Wildfire is another focus of AISIX. The company has map probabilities of wildfire everywhere in Canada.
“[We] produce data that will tell people how wildfire behaviour will change with climate change,” Roberti explained, adding it is “the most advanced data set of this kind in Canada.”
What is next with Mount Garibaldi?
Roberti and his team’s Final Report on Probabilistic Modelling of Lava Flows and Lahars from Mount Garibaldi/Nch’ḵay̓ and the Recommendations for Guidelines for Volcanic Hazard and Risk Assessment in Canada, is a big part of the larger 2022-2025 Volcano Risk Reduction in Canada (VRRC) project being led by the Geological Survey of Canada. That project is developing a hazard and risk assessment for Mount Garibaldi, developing guidelines for volcanic hazard and risk assessment in Canada, and developing an operational volcano deformation monitoring system.
“The recommendations from this report will be used by Natural Resources Canada and Volcano Risk Reduction in Canada project partners as a contribution to a comprehensive Guidelines for Volcanic Hazard and Risk Assessment in Canada,” said Roberti, in a news release.
He noted that currently, there are flood zones determined for any potential development.
Something similar will likely be created to guide development in volcanic zones.
"There will be different zones with different codes that will require certain action, I assume. And this is like how our risk assessment is carried out."
There will also be an educational campaign related to risk and how to manage it in the shadow of a volcano.
“We are proud to have contributed to the advancement of hazard and risk assessment in Canada, helping Canadians to move towards a safer future,” says Mihalis Belantis, CEO of AISIX Solutions, in the release.
Volcanoes are 'super cool'
Asked what led him to his current career, Roberti said at a young age he was interested in natural sciences, and then started to study geosciences.
“I liked the natural hazard part of it,” he said, adding he wanted to do something that would help people in a real way.
“What we do is very tangible. We tell people where it might be dangerous or not. Also, throughout my academic career, I always work to bring the science we do in academia to the outside world.”
He added that volcanoes are “super cool.”
How can we tell when a volcano will erupt?
As noted, there will be signs if a volcano is set to erupt.
"These signs of unrest include earthquakes, ground deformation, gas emissions, and heat anomalies, as well as gravity, magnetic, and geoelectrical phenomena," reads the Natural Resources Canada website.
There have been about 49 volcanic eruptions in British Columbia and the Yukon territory during the last 10,000 years.
Find out more about volcanoes in Canada at opentextbc.ca.
