The first day of the new year will mark the 30th anniversary of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) coming into force in Canada, the United States and Mexico.
We now use different acronyms to refer to the deal, and the perceptions of Canadians about what to do in the realm of international commerce are significantly different now than they were in 1994.
When Research Co. and Glacier Media asked Canadians about trade, our perceptions on the U.S. are intriguing. For just over two-thirds of Canadians (67 per cent), the federal government should aim to diversify its trade to be less dependent on the U.S. This view is shared by 78 per cent of those who voted for the Liberal Party in the 2021 election, and 68 per cent of those who supported either the Conservative Party or the New Democratic Party (NDP) in that same ballot.
When Canadians ranked the importance of 10 different trade partners around the world, more than four in five (82 per cent) say the most important one is the U.S.
Nineteen out of 20 Canadians (95 per cent) give our neighbouring nation – and Canada’s free trade partner since 1988 – one of their three main “votes” on this question.
Only two other entities garnered “majority support” on the first three “votes”: The European Union (EU) (54 per cent) and the United Kingdom (51 per cent).
China was close at 47 per cent, and the level of importance drops for Mexico (25 per cent), Japan (19 per cent) and India (10 per cent). Three other nations – Russia, South Korea and Brazil – are in single digits.
At this point, Canadians appear to be more comfortable dealing with Americans, Brits and Europeans. This does not mean that the importance of Asian markets is lost on the country’s residents. Three in five Canadians (60 per cent) think Canada needs to act now to take advantage of Asian countries’ need for energy resources. In addition, just over half think strengthening economic and political relations with Asia should be Canada’s top foreign policy priority (52 per cent) and believe that Canada stands to benefit from more Asian investment in the country (51 per cent).
Our geographical location plays a role in how we see future developments. In British Columbia, 52 per cent of respondents place China on their top-three of countries and entities Canada should have good trade relations with. The proportion falls to 41 per cent in Atlantic Canada.
Another issue that warrants exploration is the fact that just 30 per cent of Canadians consider Canada to be part of the Asia-Pacific region – a proportion that rises above the national average only in British Columbia (42 per cent) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (34 per cent).
The perceived importance of Asia diminishes as we make our way east, with the exception of Quebec, where the numbers on most questions are similar to what we find in British Columbia.
The other complexity is related to our perceptions of governance in the countries where Canadian goods can be sold.
Over the past two decades, the world has witnessed significant takeovers originating in Asia and the Middle East. In Canada, the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) purchased Calgary-based Nexen more than a decade ago. Three long-standing European soccer clubs – Manchester City and Newcastle United in England, and Paris Saint-Germain in France – are now being funded, and massively so, by organizations based in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
When Canadians are asked about their feelings if a company, bank or investment fund controlled by a foreign government were trying to purchase a controlling stake in a major Canadian company, opinions are varied.
Just over three in five (61 per cent) would be in favour of such a takeover if the foreign governments calling the shots were the United Kingdom or the U.S. About half would have no problem if France (53 per cent) or Japan (50 per cent) tried to acquire a Canadian corporation.
The level of confidence is lower for all the other nations tested. Only a third of Canadians would welcome a corporate takeover spearheaded by the government of Brazil (33 per cent) and fewer would be in favour of similar operations involving India (29 per cent), the United Arab Emirates (25 per cent), Qatar (24 per cent), Saudi Arabia (23 per cent) and China (22 per cent).
Almost three decades after NAFTA, the views of Canadians on trade can be confusing at times. Practically everyone agrees on the importance of the U.S., but a sizeable majority seeks a chance to diversify and go beyond the 49th parallel.
We look at Asia as an important element in the future of Canadian commerce, particularly on the energy file, but our tolerance for corporate takeovers by state-funded enterprises is low. It will be important to watch how these discussions unfold as we get closer to the federal election, while keeping an eye in 2024 on who will be in charge in Washington, D.C.
Mario Canseco is president and founder of Research Co.
Results are based on an online survey conducted from November 23 to November 25, 2023, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
